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Weather prediction markets · settled on an eleven-feed consensus

Markets on the weather that settle on eleven feeds, priced from a 16-day forecast.

Every market here asks whether the consensus of eleven independent feeds will read a condition at one hour — with the forecast’s own probability beside the price, the feeds that agree on the hour, an on-chain anchor for every run, and a parametric cover on the same condition one click away. 167 cities, 90 countries, six daily products each.

8590
open markets
840
settled in 24 h
157 met · 380 not met · 303 withheld
39/167
cities settling reliably
≥ 70% of recent hours eligible
2
parametric covers written

Simulation: you start with 10,000 sUSDT and nothing here has monetary value. Powered by Weather Data Market

Consensus this hour
run_sgyHE7vVmP · 12 min ago · subscription
All 167
CityTempRainWindWDIVerdictFeeds
Seoul
South Korea
25.0°C0.01.347.2verified11/11
Tokyo
Japan
25.8°C0.00.949.1mismatch11/11
Singapore
Singapore
29.0°C0.02.054.0verified11/11
Sydney
Australia
21.0°C0.04.550.1verified11/11
Dubai
United Arab Emirates
28.7°C0.02.353.2mismatch11/11
New York
United States
57.4°F0.06.344.0verified11/11
London
United Kingdom
13.0°C0.02.043.8verified11/11
Sao Paulo
Brazil
13.6°C0.03.047.9verified11/11
Run run_sgyHE7vVmP
Anchor pending

What every market here carries

The same six things, on every card, every quote and every settlement.

Settled on a consensus

Eleven independent feeds, reduced to a median with outlier rejection and graded verified, mixed or mismatch every hour. The grade is what settles the market.

A model probability beside the price

The 16-day forecast implies a probability for every condition on the board. It sits next to the market price, and the gap between them is shown as edge.

Six daily questions per city

Temperature at even money, a hot tail and a cold tail, precipitation, wind and humidity — at one, three, seven and fourteen days ahead, for 167 cities.

Evidence at settlement

The determination: the value, the verdict, the feeds that agreed and disagreed, the run id and the SHA-256 anchor on BNB Chain. Final once issued.

Withheld by rule, graded in advance

When feeds do not corroborate an hour, markets void and refund and premiums return. Each city’s recent eligibility rate is on every card before you trade.

A cover on the same condition

A parametric policy on the identical metric, hour and threshold, priced from the same model and paid on the same determination — designed by you.

On the board now 8590 open

All markets →
Prediction markets

YES/NO shares on one condition at one hour, from an LMSR market maker seeded at the model probability. Six questions per city per day, four horizons, every category the oracle reports.

Open the board
Parametric cover

Pick the city, the condition, the hour and the amount. The premium is the model probability times the cover, loaded and fee’d, shown line by line. Pays in full when the determination says met.

Design a cover
The determination itself

The verdict is the product: met, not met or withheld, with the value, the feeds that agreed and disagreed, the run id and the on-chain anchor. Final once issued. Same condition, same hour, same answer for everyone.

How it is made

Parametric cover families

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