Cities / Europe

Belgrade

Serbia·Europe·LYBE·44.79, 20.45

Grade CHigh settlement risk47%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 57% (30d)

weathermarket.ai ↗Insure this city Open a market

Hourly consensus

verified

Temperature

11.8°C

Humidity

71%

Wind

2.2m/s

Precipitation

0.0mm

WDI: 41.80
TDI: 52.30
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

41.8

Weather Discomfort Index

Overall weather stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

52.3

Thermal Discomfort Index

Heat and humidity stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

Run run_nLsD282LPj

Anchor pending

as of 2026-09-24 05:00 UTC

refreshed 49 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

15 days

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-24	17.9	22.7	12.9	0.1	42	2.5	1
2026-09-25	13.9	14.9	12.7	4.4	85	1.6	1
2026-09-26	15.5	19.7	11.3	0.2	75	1.1	1
2026-09-27	16.6	21.6	11.5	0.0	71	0.8	1
2026-09-28	17.5	22.9	12.7	0.0	68	0.8	1
2026-09-29	17.1	22.8	12.5	0.0	67	1.1	1
2026-09-30	16.2	21.8	11.8	0.0	66	2.3	1
2026-10-01	15.9	20.6	12.5	0.0	72	2.1	1
2026-10-02	16.6	21.8	13.1	0.0	67	2.0	1
2026-10-03	16.9	22.9	12.7	0.0	66	1.2	1
2026-10-04	17.2	23.1	12.7	0.0	68	0.8	1
2026-10-05	18.2	24.2	13.7	0.0	67	0.9	1
2026-10-06	17.4	21.2	14.8	0.0	75	0.9	1
2026-10-07	17.2	22.3	13.3	0.0	71	1.4	1
2026-10-08	18.5	24.5	12.8	0.0	52	0.9	1

Open markets 44

Product board →

Next-day markets are not listed automatically for Belgrade: too many of its recent hours were not settlement-eligible, and a next-day market that voids after a day of trading helps nobody. The 3-, 7- and 14-day markets are listed as usual, and you can open a next-day market by hand on the right.

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	58%	58%	0	23 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	35%	58%	-22	23 h
Will Belgrade humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	86%	54%	+33	23 h
Will Belgrade humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	95%	53%	+41	23 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	7%	27%	-21	23 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	17%	28%	-11	23 h
Will Belgrade precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	32%	34%	-2	23 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	64%	49%	+15	47 h
Will Belgrade humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	50%	43%	+7	47 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 17°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	6%	48%	-42	47 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	28%	21%	+7	47 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	14%	22%	-8	47 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	45%	55%	-10	47 h
Will Belgrade humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	68%	57%	+12	47 h
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 18°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	7%	45%	-37	3 d
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 19°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	3%	45%	-42	3 d
Will Belgrade humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	53%	50%	+3	3 d
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	41%	44%	-3	3 d
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	26%	29%	-3	3 d
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	57%	57%	+0	3 d

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	21 h ago
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	23 h ago
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	23 h ago
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	24 h ago
Will Belgrade temperature ≥ 16°C at 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC?	void	47 h ago

Station day · LYBE · 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 local · 22:00Z → 22:00Z UTC · +02:00

Reading the station…

Open a market

A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

Parametric insurance

Buy a cover on Belgrade that pays the full amount when the condition is met at the target hour.

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