Cities / Europe

Manchester

United Kingdom·Europe·EGCC·53.48, -2.24

Grade BSettles reliably88%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 89% (30d)

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Hourly consensus

mixed

Temperature

9.6°C

Humidity

90%

Wind

1.3m/s

Precipitation

0.0mm

WDI: 43.60
TDI: 49.50
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: not eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

43.6

Weather Discomfort Index

Overall weather stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

49.5

Thermal Discomfort Index

Heat and humidity stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

This hour is not settlement-eligible: a determination targeting it would be withheld and any market on it would settle as void.

Run run_nLsD282LPj

Anchor pending

as of 2026-09-24 05:00 UTC

refreshed 52 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

14 days

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-24	14.7	19.6	9.7	0.0	70	2.2	1
2026-09-25	14.3	15.4	12.1	1.7	80	1.8	1
2026-09-26	14.2	18.1	10.5	0.0	75	2.6	1
2026-09-27	14.5	17.0	12.3	9.6	78	3.3	1
2026-09-28	13.4	17.0	9.7	0.0	67	2.0	1
2026-09-29	18.5	23.1	13.0	8.7	76	5.4	1
2026-09-30	19.0	20.9	16.7	8.0	79	4.4	1
2026-10-01	16.6	19.8	13.0	3.6	81	3.5	1
2026-10-02	11.5	13.4	9.2	8.9	93	2.6	1
2026-10-03	11.2	13.9	8.7	3.7	83	2.5	1
2026-10-04	13.3	15.5	10.8	1.2	84	2.3	1
2026-10-05	14.5	17.5	12.0	4.8	85	2.0	1
2026-10-06	15.0	17.7	11.4	4.5	89	3.5	1
2026-10-07	14.4	15.2	12.1	17.1	90	2.7	1

Open markets 43

Product board →

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes
Will Manchester temperature ≤ 11°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	19%	21%	-2	23 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	62%	55%	+7	23 h
Will Manchester precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	11%	31%	-20	23 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	20%	24%	-4	23 h
Will Manchester wind ≥ 2m/s at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	45%	47%	-3	23 h
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 95% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	25%	46%	-21	23 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	40%	58%	-18	23 h
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	45%	45%	0	23 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	8%	27%	-19	23 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	24%	22%	+2	47 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	41%	53%	-13	47 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	60%	51%	+8	47 h
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	45%	49%	-4	47 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	5%	45%	-40	47 h
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 15°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	20%	20%	-1	3 d
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	56%	56%	+0	3 d
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	49%	52%	-4	3 d
Will Manchester precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	54%	48%	+6	3 d
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	33%	45%	-12	3 d
Will Manchester temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC	32%	51%	-19	4 d

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Manchester precipitation ≥ 1mm at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	22 h ago
Will Manchester temperature ≤ 11°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	22 h ago
Will Manchester wind ≥ 4m/s at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	23 h ago
Will Manchester humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	23 h ago
Will Manchester temperature ≤ 12°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	23 h ago

Station day · EGCC · 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 local · 23:00Z → 23:00Z UTC · +01:00

Reading the station…

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A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

Parametric insurance

Buy a cover on Manchester that pays the full amount when the condition is met at the target hour.

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