Cities / Europe

Oslo

Norway·Europe·ENGM·59.91, 10.75

Grade CHigh settlement risk41%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 42% (30d)

weathermarket.ai ↗Insure this city Open a market

Hourly consensus

mixed

Temperature

13.1°C

Humidity

98%

Wind

2.5m/s

Precipitation

0.1mm

WDI: 48.20
TDI: 53.90
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: not eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

48.2

Weather Discomfort Index

Overall weather stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

53.9

Thermal Discomfort Index

Heat and humidity stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

This hour is not settlement-eligible: a determination targeting it would be withheld and any market on it would settle as void.

Run run_nLsD282LPj

Anchor pending

as of 2026-09-24 05:00 UTC

refreshed 49 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

14 days

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-24	13.3	13.5	9.3	7.6	85	2.7	2
2026-09-25	12.5	15.1	8.9	0.0	83	1.4	2
2026-09-26	13.9	16.8	9.6	1.0	72	2.1	2
2026-09-27	12.3	15.5	7.3	0.0	82	2.4	2
2026-09-28	13.2	14.9	8.8	2.4	91	3.5	2
2026-09-29	13.4	15.1	8.4	0.0	85	1.4	2
2026-09-30	13.9	17.7	9.8	0.0	90	1.8	2
2026-10-01	14.1	18.3	10.7	0.0	80	2.5	1
2026-10-02	14.1	17.5	10.7	1.0	82	3.6	1
2026-10-03	13.5	15.8	11.2	3.8	90	3.7	1
2026-10-04	10.4	12.7	7.4	0.0	91	1.0	1
2026-10-05	9.5	13.2	6.3	1.2	88	0.9	1
2026-10-06	10.6	14.8	6.1	0.0	81	0.8	1
2026-10-07	10.2	12.3	8.1	5.4	95	2.7	1

Open markets 39

Product board →

Next-day markets are not listed automatically for Oslo: too many of its recent hours were not settlement-eligible, and a next-day market that voids after a day of trading helps nobody. The 3-, 7- and 14-day markets are listed as usual, and you can open a next-day market by hand on the right.

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	56%	19%	+37	23 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 8°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	90%	47%	+44	23 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	34%	20%	+14	23 h
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	49%	49%	0	23 h
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 95% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	28%	56%	-28	23 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	76%	31%	+45	23 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	19%	50%	-30	47 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	53%	53%	0	47 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	71%	57%	+14	47 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	35%	27%	+8	47 h
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	45%	56%	-11	47 h
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	27%	49%	-22	47 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	85%	56%	+29	47 h
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	64%	56%	+8	47 h
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	52%	49%	+3	3 d
Will Oslo precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	3%	27%	-24	3 d
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	22%	46%	-24	3 d
Will Oslo humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC	46%	49%	-3	3 d
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC	25%	46%	-21	4 d
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC	8%	50%	-42	4 d

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	23 h ago
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	23 h ago
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	24 h ago
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	void	24 h ago
Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	48 h ago

Station day · ENGM · 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 local · 22:00Z → 22:00Z UTC · +02:00

Reading the station…

Open a market

A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

Parametric insurance

Buy a cover on Oslo that pays the full amount when the condition is met at the target hour.

Insure this city →

Date

Avg °C

Max

Min

Rain mm

Hum %

Wind m/s

2026-09-24

13.3

13.5

9.3

7.6

2.7

2026-09-25

12.5

15.1

8.9

0.0

1.4

2026-09-26

13.9

16.8

9.6

1.0

2.1

2026-09-27

12.3

15.5

7.3

0.0

2.4

2026-09-28

13.2

14.9

8.8

2.4

3.5

2026-09-29

13.4

15.1

8.4

0.0

1.4

2026-09-30

13.9

17.7

9.8

0.0

1.8

2026-10-01

14.1

18.3

10.7

0.0

2.5

2026-10-02

14.1

17.5

10.7

1.0

3.6

2026-10-03

13.5

15.8

11.2

3.8

3.7

2026-10-04

10.4

12.7

7.4

0.0

1.0

2026-10-05

9.5

13.2

6.3

1.2

0.9

2026-10-06

10.6

14.8

6.1

0.0

0.8

2026-10-07

10.2

12.3

8.1

5.4

2.7

Question

Market

Edge

Closes

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

19%

+37

23 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 8°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

47%

+44

23 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

20%

+14

23 h

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

49%

23 h

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 95% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

56%

-28

23 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC

31%

+45

23 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

50%

-30

47 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

53%

47 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

57%

+14

47 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

27%

47 h

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

56%

-11

47 h

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

49%

-22

47 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

56%

+29

47 h

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 75% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC

56%

47 h

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC

49%

3 d

Will Oslo precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC

27%

-24

3 d

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC

46%

-24

3 d

Will Oslo humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-27 06:00 UTC

49%

-3

3 d

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC

46%

-21

4 d

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC?

target 2026-09-28 06:00 UTC

50%

-42

4 d

Question

Result

Settled

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?

void

23 h ago

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?

void

23 h ago

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?

void

24 h ago

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 9°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?

void

24 h ago

Will Oslo temperature ≥ 10°C at 2026-09-22 06:00 UTC?

resolved NO

48 h ago

Open a market

A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.