Cities / Europe

Warsaw

Poland·Europe·EPWA·52.23, 21.01

Grade BSettles reliably86%of hours settle-eligible (7d)· 70% (30d)

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Hourly consensus

verified

Temperature

8.0°C

Humidity

95%

Wind

2.2m/s

Precipitation

0.0mm

WDI: 44.20
TDI: 47.50
Sources: 11 / 11
Settlement: eligible

Indices · this hour

History & sources on weathermarket.ai ↗Index spec ↗

WDIheadline

44.2

Weather Discomfort Index

Overall weather stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

TDI

47.5

Thermal Discomfort Index

Heat and humidity stress on the hour, 0–100 · unit-free

Index history · last 7 days · one point per run

WDITDItemp °Cfull history on weathermarket.ai ↗

Loading history…

Run run_nLsD282LPj

Anchor pending

as of 2026-09-24 05:00 UTC

refreshed 51 min ago (cached)

Live consensus feed

Reading the run…

weathermarket.ai · the oracle

Eleven independent feeds every hour: two measured at the station, nine numerical models from national weather services.
Outliers excluded per metric, corroboration counted between the measured sources, and a verdict per metric on whether the hour can settle.
Every run hashed and anchored on a public ledger, so the number a market settles on can be checked after the fact.
Station records for the local calendar day with the raw METAR behind each extreme, and a 16-day forecast cut on station time.

weathermarket.io · this simulator

Turns each run into tradeable markets and parametric covers on 167 cities: hourly conditions, station-day extremes and index thresholds.
Prices from the forecast and the index history, shown next to the market so the edge is visible, with a living order book to trade against.
Lists next-day products only where the oracle's recent hours settle, and shows this feed on every market so the evidence is on the page before settlement.
Settles on the oracle's determination and nothing else, with the run, the anchor and the readings kept on the settled market.

Readings and verdict from the oracle's own run as served to a subscriber. The rule that turns eleven readings into one number is the oracle's and is not disclosed; what it decided is.Powered by Weather Data Market

Daily forecast

15 days

Date	Avg °C	Max	Min	Rain mm	Hum %	Wind m/s	Src
2026-09-24	11.0	12.0	9.3	0.2	87	3.1	2
2026-09-25	12.3	16.4	9.6	6.3	89	3.2	2
2026-09-26	13.0	17.8	11.5	0.3	84	2.3	2
2026-09-27	13.6	20.2	10.6	0.0	78	1.6	2
2026-09-28	15.0	21.4	11.6	0.0	74	2.7	2
2026-09-29	14.8	21.5	12.4	0.0	74	2.6	2
2026-09-30	13.7	21.4	11.8	0.0	76	2.6	2
2026-10-01	14.0	19.2	9.8	0.0	74	3.3	1
2026-10-02	14.4	18.8	11.2	0.0	72	4.0	1
2026-10-03	14.1	18.5	10.6	0.0	77	3.0	1
2026-10-04	12.7	16.0	9.6	1.2	85	2.6	1
2026-10-05	10.8	15.3	7.9	0.0	83	2.3	1
2026-10-06	11.1	14.6	7.6	2.5	84	2.0	1
2026-10-07	11.0	14.5	8.2	1.1	83	2.0	1
2026-10-08	11.7	15.8	8.2	2.3	79	3.6	1

Open markets 50

Product board →

Question	Model	Market	Edge	Closes	Volume
Will Warsaw precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	42%	42%	+0	23 h	12 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	22%	19%	+2	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	41%	44%	-2	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	9%	20%	-11	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≤ 10°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	18%	18%	0	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 11°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	64%	47%	+17	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 95% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	45%	58%	-13	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 4m/s at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	30%	30%	0	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≤ 11°C at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	36%	33%	+3	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	83%	53%	+30	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 3m/s at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	55%	50%	+5	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-25 06:00 UTC	66%	46%	+20	23 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	74%	45%	+30	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 95% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	28%	50%	-22	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 90% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	46%	53%	-7	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 80% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	80%	53%	+27	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 14°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	38%	22%	+16	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	3%	30%	-27	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	57%	51%	+6	47 h	0 sUSDT
Will Warsaw humidity ≥ 85% at 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC? target 2026-09-26 06:00 UTC	65%	53%	+11	47 h	0 sUSDT

Recently settled

Question	Result	Settled
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 13°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	22 h ago
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 5m/s at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	22 h ago
Will Warsaw wind ≥ 4m/s at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved YES	23 h ago
Will Warsaw precipitation ≥ 0.2mm at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	23 h ago
Will Warsaw temperature ≥ 12°C at 2026-09-23 06:00 UTC?	resolved NO	23 h ago

Station day · EPWA · 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 local · 22:00Z → 22:00Z UTC · +02:00

Reading the station…

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A YES/NO market on a condition at a whole UTC hour, settled by the oracle determination. Priced off the forecast; trading closes 1 h before the target hour.

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